LSU Football: Oddsmakers Favor Alabama, But They Always Do

Across Louisiana, this week is known by many as 'Bama Hate Week'. No matter what, this week generally carries some extra attention from football fans. Even when those outside of Louisiana and Alabama don't think it should.

This week, LSU is a big betting underdog against Alabama. But that's actually nothing new. Right now, LSU has a broken season. They've lost more than expected, they fired their coach, the Governor got involved in the football operations...it's a literal dumpster fire.

What Are The Odds This Year For LSU Versus Alabama?

This year, the odds actually don't reflect all of the LSU problems as much as you might think.

Some oddsmakers currently have Alabama as a 10.5 point favorite in this weekend's matchup...that's it. LSU has had worse odds before. In fact, the odds have been stacked even higher against LSU in recent memory.

Just How Bad Have The Odds Been Against LSU?

Just how bad have the odds been? The numbers are pretty staggering. Think about the 2020 game, where LSU was coming off the high of the 2019 National Championship, and the Tigers were an almost 30-point underdog. The final line was Alabama -29.5, to be fair, Alabama did win by 38 that year.

It didn't get much better the next year, either. In 2021, the Tide rolled into the game as a 28.5-point favorite. So, when you look at it that way, being a 10.5-point dog doesn't seem quite as bad.

History of LSU vs Bama Spreads

Looking back at the history of this game shows just how wrong the so called experts in Vegas can be. The history of this matchup reveals the lines for this game are wrong as often as they are right. Then again, isn't that the point of oddsmakers? They're trying to win money on both sides?

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What's clear is that Alabama being a heavy favorite is nothing new...but neither is LSU messing things up for them.

Here's a quick rundown of the last 8 games. You'll notice a trend.

2024: Alabama -28.5 (Bama Won 42-13)
2023: Alabama -3 (Bama Won 42-28)
2022: Alabama -13.5 (LSU WON 32-31)
2021: Alabama -28.5 (Bama Won 20-14, Didn't Cover)
2020: Alabama -29.5 (Bama Won 55-17)
2019: Alabama -5.5 (LSU WON 46-41)
2018: Alabama -14.5 (Bama Won 29-0)
2017: Alabama -21.5 (Bama Won 24-10, Didn't Cover)

Do The Odds Actually Mean Anything When LSU Plays Alabama?

Really, no. They always say 'throw the records out' in these type of rivalry games. The odds are kind of the same.

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The takeaway here is that the odds are just numbers. LSU has a history of pulling off the upset when it counts, and even when they don't win, they often keep it closer than anyone expects. We'll see what happens this weekend.