The National Hurricane Center is currently eyeing tropical model forecasts that suggest the western Caribbean Sea could become a hot spot for tropical development later this week. As of now, there is no organized area of disturbed weather forecasters are watching. However, model forecasts do suggest that a low-pressure center could form over those very warm waters this week.

Should that happen and a tropical system develops it could pose a problem for the Gulf of Mexico. Before you call your doctor to refill your anxiety meds, let's take a deep breath and look at the reality of this particular forecast scenario.

As of now, forecasters do see a center of circulation forming a part of the world that is a typical hot spot for tropical development this time of year. However, the Hurricane Center is only giving this particular system a 20% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

Granted initial track guidance, which is very inconclusive at this time, does suggest the system, should it form will move north toward the Gulf of Mexico. However, historical data suggests that systems that form this time of year in that part of the ocean tend to be pushed off toward the east instead of toward the northern or western Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile, a system just south and west of Bermuda is expected to become a tropical cyclone over the next few days. Should it earn a name it would be called Epsilon. As of now, that system has been given a 90% probability of becoming at least a tropical depression by tomorrow. The good news is that it should stay out to sea and is by no means a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.


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