ESPN Publishes Win Probability For All 2026 Saints Games

New Orleans Saints fans are a passionate group. They can be passionately positive about their team...and they can be passionately negative too. But that's all because they love their squad.

Going into 2026, fans are pretty excited about what the Saints might be able to do. In the second half of the 2025 season, quarterback Tyler Shough looked like the best rookie quarterback in the class. The team was gelling, but it was too little, too late for the Saints. They fell short of the playoffs at the end of the season, but had something to look forward to in 2026.

Then the team started loading up on offensive weapons in free agency and the draft, which just fired up fans more...but how do the experts feel about what the Saints are doing?

ESPN Shares Win Probability For Saints Games

What I'm about to type is all done with a grain of salt on each key. ESPN's Mike Clay put his scientific spin on projecting all of the NFL's 2026 regular season games. That includes the Saints.

We're not hear to break down his method, just the results. The only thing that we will interject at this point, is that the Saints have the 3rd easiest strength of schedule at the start of the year. But Mike Clay still doesn't like the Saints' chances. Here's what he put for the probability they will win each game in 2026:

Week 1 at Detroit Lions: 17%
Week 2 at Baltimore Ravens: 16%
Week 3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 64%
Week 4 vs. Atlanta Falcons: 62%
Week 5 vs. Minnesota Vikings: 52%
Week 6 at New York Giants: 35%
Week 7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Paris Game): 36%
Week 8: BYE WEEK
Week 9 vs. Cleveland Browns: 61%
Week 10 vs. Carolina Panthers: 57%
Week 11 at Chicago Bears: 26%
Week 12 at Cincinnati Bengals: 23%
Week 13 vs. Green Bay Packers: 38%
Week 14 at Carolina Panthers: 42%
Week 15 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 28%
Week 16 vs. Arizona Cardinals: 69%
Week 17 at Atlanta Falcons: 47%
Week 18 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 42%

Projected Win Total: 7.2

That's actually just a tick better than the Saints were last year. In 2025, they ended the season 6-11, last place in the NFC South. Although the Carolina Panthers only needed 8 wins to take the division...so the Saints weren't too far out, a 7-win season in 2026 might keep them right there in the Division race.

What Games Will The Saints Probably Win

ESPN is a great source for sports, and they can publish some cool stuff on their sites. But there's always something that feels...off. Like some of the win probabilities for the Saints in this project.

Will they probably lose to the Lions and Ravens? Yeah. But are we going to say they only have a 35% chance to beat the New York Giants? Only a 36% chance to beat the Steelers on foreign soil? I think we're being a little extreme on some of these.

If the Saints can follow what these numbers say they should, and snatch a couple extra games, this could be a 10 win Division Championship team.

But lets not get ahead of ourselves.