AFC East Division Predictions: Ceiling & Floor Analysis for Each Team
Editor's note: Michael Plundo is an incoming junior at Texas Tech studying Sports Management and spending his second semester as an intern at 600 ESPN El Paso. He is an aspiring sports journalist. Throughout the final few weeks of his internship, Michael will be diving into each NFL division to give his outlook on each team, with the ceiling and floor for each franchise. In his fourth edition of the series, Michael previews the AFC East below.
The AFC East is poised for a thrilling 2024 season. The Buffalo Bills, led by Josh Allen, are eyeing to get over the hump, while the Miami Dolphins, with their explosive offense and revamped defense, are ready to challenge. The New York Jets, with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, are set for a strong comeback. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots are entering a new era with a new head coach and rookie quarterback in Foxborough.
Buffalo Bills
- Record: 11-6 (2023) - Overall finish: Lost in Divisional Round
- Division placement: 1st - Head Coach: Sean McDermott (8th season)
- Offense rank: 374.5 yds/G (4/32) - Defense rank: 307.2 yds/G allowed (9/32)
Last year’s overview:
The Bills have won every AFC East title since 2020. They have been a consistent playoff team since 2019. However, the Bills' deepest playoff run in recent years was reaching the AFC conference championship in the 2020-21 season, where they fell to Kansas City. This past season, it came down to the last game of the season to secure the AFC East title after beating Miami in a close match. After breezing past the Steelers in the wild-card round, the Bills faced the Chiefs in the divisional matchup. However, Tyler Bass missed a crucial field goal, sealing the Bills' fate. Here is a look at what General Manager Brandon Beane did this offseason.
New Additions:
The Bills brought back a key contributor Taron Johnson, a nickel cornerback to a three-year $31 million extension, making him the highest-paid nickel corner in the league. Johnson has only missed one game since 2020 and Buffalo has him locked up until 2027. Beane made another key move by bringing back offensive tackle Dion Dawkins on a three-year $60 million extension. After scaring Bills fans on X (formerly known as Twitter) Dawkins put those trolls to rest by re-signing with Buffalo, a good move by Beane as Dawkins has been a consistent lineman since being with the team. Defensive tackle Daquan Jones was re-signed to a two-year deal, which complements Ed Oliver in the system. A.J. Epenesa, coming off his best season, also re-signed on a two-year contract, providing the team with a strong option after losing Leonard Floyd to San Francisco. Nicholas Morrow was brought in on a one-year deal for depth since Matt Milano is returning from a season-ending right leg injury. Another notable loss was Tyrel Dodson departed in the offseason for Seattle.
The biggest signing the Bills made was signing receiver Curtis Samuel to a three-year $24 million contract. Samuel’s versatility as both a receiver and rusher, combined with Allen’s passing skills, could make this one of the most underrated moves of the offseason. The Bills also added Mack Hollins, a receiver previously with Atlanta who can help out with the special teams. A couple of weeks later, receiver became a pressing need for Buffalo after the team traded their star receiver to the Houston Texans for a 2025 second-round draft pick, ending Diggs’ four-year tenure with the team, and Gabe Davis left for Jacksonville. Many speculated that his “diva” attitude led to the trade, but his tenure with the Bills was undeniably impressive. He played a crucial role in the team’s playoff runs and earned first-team All-Pro honors in his first year with Buffalo while leading the league in receptions and receiving yards. Losing a player of Diggs' caliber is a significant blow, followed by the departure of five-year center Mitch Morse to Jacksonville. The Bills needed to secure strong replacements to fill these holes.
The Bills traded out of the first round in the draft with Carolina giving Buffalo the 33rd overall pick and they grabbed receiver Keon Coleman from Florida State. Coleman might not be judged highly for his speed, but has shown flashes of explosiveness and could get better each week as a projected immediate starter. Picked out of Georgia, center Sedrick Van Pran-Granger will replace Morse. Ray Davis was a nice pick by Beane, the former Kentucky running back will make an excellent number two option alongside the emerging talent of James Cook. Safety Cole Bishop out of Utah will fill the void left by Micah Hyde unless he re-signs late in the offseason, and Daequan Hardy, a late-round pick from Penn State, could prove to be a steal. With Dane Jackson heading to Carolina and seven-year veteran Tre'Davious White signing with the Rams, Hardy has a prime opportunity to make a name for himself.
Burning Questions for BUF:
Will Josh Allen see a decline in production with Diggs gone?
Is the Bills Super Bowl window closing?
Diggs, Morse, and White are big losses and have been major contributors for the Bills but they could not help bring a Super Bowl to Buffalo and it was time to go a different route. Make no mistake, Allen remains an elite quarterback even without Diggs. However, Allen was second in the league in interceptions thrown this past season, an issue that has occasionally plagued him in the past as well. Diggs and Allen significantly boosted each other's performance, but their separation will undoubtedly impact Allen.
The Bills will remain in the playoff mix, but the AFC has become increasingly tougher. With the Kansas City Chiefs as back-to-back champs and a healthy Joe Burrow leading Cincinnati, both teams that have previously eliminated the Bills in the playoffs, the road ahead won’t be any easier. That doesn't change the fact that it took a game-winning interception by safety Taylor Rapp in the final week of the regular season to clinch the division title.
The Bills have the talent to compete with the top dogs with Allen under center, the underrated tight end duo of veteran Dawson Knox and second-year player Dalton Kincaid, Cook and Davis in the backfield, and a new-look offensive line. The defense lost some veterans, but with Milano returning and a determined Greg Rousseau, they will remain solid. If things get worse and Buffalo suffers major regression, do not be surprised if significant changes are made.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 8-9
Miami Dolphins
- Record: 11-6 (2023) - Overall finish: Lost in Wild Card
- Division placement: 2nd - Head Coach: Mike McDaniel (3rd season)
- Offense rank: 401.3 yds/G (1/32) - Defense rank: 318.3 yds/G allowed (10/32)
Last year’s overview:
What an offense that was for the Miami Dolphins last year. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa slinging the pigskin to star receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert and rookie back Devon Achane in the backfield, this was a fun offense to watch. Leading the league in yards per game and scoring 70 points against Denver in week 3 highlights just how exceptional this group was. The defense is filled with talent, but health played an important factor late in the season and a poor performance in the wild card against the Chiefs led to an early exit, General Manager Chris Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel had a lot of work to do.
New Additions:
The Dolphins lost a couple of veterans in free agency: linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel reunited with former head coach Brian Flores in Minnesota, and longtime Dolphin Xavien Howard was released. Guard Robert Hunt departed for a lucrative deal in Carolina, but the biggest loss was star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, who signed a four-year, $110 million contract with the Raiders. Safety Brandon Jones also signed with Denver, leaving the Dolphins with several gaps to fill. In response, Grier and McDaniel added new players to the roster.
Miami poached safety Jordan Poyer from their rivals in Buffalo on a one-year deal. A Florida resident, Poyer is on the older side (33) but pairing him with a rising player in Jevon Holland could prove to be one of the steals of free agency. Staying in the secondary, Miami signed ex-Commander cornerback Kendall Fuller to a two-year deal who could bounce back with Jalen Ramsey leading the secondary. Slot cornerback Nik Needham was re-signed to a two-year deal, a smart move given his proven ability to hold down the position. Returning healthy, Needham is poised to make a significant impact.
Linebacker Jerome Baker departed for Seattle, and to fill that void, Miami signed former Seahawks linebacker Jordyn Brooks to a three-year, $30 million deal. Brooks will slot in alongside David Long Jr. and Anthony Walker who was brought in from Cleveland, Brooks has registered 513 tackles in four seasons, a solid add by Grier. Introducing Miami's new big three: the Dolphins have signed receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year deal, forming a formidable trio with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. To revamp their offensive line, the Dolphins signed center Aaron Brewer to a three-year deal. While Brewer has allowed 21 sacks over the past three seasons, he has the potential to thrive under the guidance of offensive line coach Butch Barry in Miami. In the draft, the Dolphins selected edge rusher Chop Robinson from Penn State in the first round. A 2023 first-team All-Big Ten selection, Robinson has immense potential. With pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips recovering from injuries, veteran Calais Campbell brought in to help the defensive line, this unit could become dominant. A sleeper pick for Miami came in the 7th round when Grier picked wide receiver Tahj Washington from USC.
Burning Questions for MIA:
An offseason of renovation, it was for the Miami Dolphins. The team underwent significant changes in free agency, and the draft and are hoping these changes prove to be beneficial.
Is extending Tua Tagovailoa the right move?
Could head coach Mike McDaniel be on the hot seat?
Tua has developed into a solid quarterback for the Dolphins, but with his contract extension approaching, there is debate over whether extending him is the right decision. Injuries have been a concern for Tua, who dealt with a rib injury and fractured finger on his throwing hand in 2021, two separate concussions in weeks 4 and 16 in 2022, and suffered a nasty cut on his non-throwing arm last season. The guy has been through a lot and as success-wise goes, the Dolphins have made the playoffs the past two seasons, Tua only played in this past wild card game, missing the 2023 wild card round due to injury. Grier and McDaniel have an interesting decision to make with not only do they want to pay him but how much they are willing to give him.
Mike McDaniel has been a good hire for the Dolphins, he has helped transform that offense into elite status. In his first two seasons as head coach, Miami has been knocked out in the wild-card round, prompting many to question if McDaniel's job is at risk. The Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000, and failing to break that drought could put McDaniel on the hot seat.
The Dolphins will be a thrilling team to watch with their star-studded offense and emerging young talent on defense. In recent years, health issues and late-season injuries have hindered their progress. If they can stay healthy, don’t be surprised if the Dolphins take the AFC East.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 8-9
New York Jets
- Record: 7-10 (2023) - Overall finish: Did not qualify for playoffs
- Division placement: 3rd - Head Coach: Robert Saleh (4th season)
- Offense rank: 268.6 yds/G (31/32) - Defense rank: 292.3 yds/G allowed (3/32)
Last year’s overview:
Sky-high expectations and excitement surrounded the New York Jets coming into the 2023-24 season. Those expectations and excitement quickly went away in four snaps, after quarterback Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in four snaps, that was all it took for fans to lose all hope and faith in the Jets, an unfortunate situation in the Big Apple, given the acquisition of Rodgers. Zach Wilson was thrown in but could not provide any type of spark and the Jets finished with the second-worst offensive yards per game in the league. Rodgers confirmed he will be back with the Jets and General Manager Joe Douglas wasted no time in creating the best team possible around Rodgers.
New Additions:
Part of the reason Rodgers’ season ended was because of an abysmal offensive line. To fix that, the Jets agreed to terms with ex-Cowboy Tyron Smith on a one-year deal, signed ex-Raven John Simpson, and brought back a familiar face by signing right tackle Morgan Moses to a one-year deal. This brings three new starters to the Jets' offensive line. Smith is a gamble, having missed 37 games over the past four seasons, but he can make a significant impact when healthy. Jets also spent a first-round draft pick on tackle Olu Fashanu out of Penn State, who could groom under Smith until he is ready. The Jets signed wide receiver Mike Williams to a one-year deal worth up to $15 million. Known for his fearless play and ability to win jump ball battles, Williams tore his ACL last season and will turn 30 in October, making this signing undeniably risky.
Losing Bryce Huff and Jordan Whitehead in free agency hurts, however trading a future 2026 third-round pick, could be a second-round depending on specific terms for edge rusher Haason Reddick was a steal. Reddick helps strengthen the Jets pass-rush unit, he has registered 27 sacks over the past two years and will pair nicely with Jermaine Johnson who had a solid second season. Defensive tackle was a significant need for the Jets, with only star player Quinnen Williams anchoring the line. Head coach Robert Saleh brought in a familiar face, signing Javon Kinlaw from San Francisco to a one-year, $7.25 million deal. Although Kinlaw's tenure with the 49ers was marred by injuries and underperformance, lining up next to Williams could lessen some of the pressure and help him bounce back. Douglas brought back safety Chuck Clark on a one-year deal who missed all of last season due to a torn acl who will replace Whitehead.
As mentioned earlier, the Jets picked Penn State tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu at 11th overall giving the Jets a hopeful long-term answer at the tackle position. Douglas got himself a steal in the third round after trading up seven spots to select Malachi Corley, a wide receiver from Western Kentucky who scored 29 touchdowns from 2021-2023. The Jets made an interesting selection in the fifth round after drafting former Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis, with Wilson being traded to Denver, Travis is in a good situation as he can learn from Rodgers to potentially get a chance in the future.
Burning Questions for NYJ:
Credit to the Jets for prioritizing the offensive line, especially with a 40-year old quarterback under center. New York has the pieces to be a playoff team, but given their track record, it’s hard to be optimistic.
Will Aaron Rodgers return to form?
Are Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas on their way out if 2024-25 is a disappointment?
Rodgers is destined for the Hall of Fame. With four MVP awards, a Super Bowl ring, and a Super Bowl MVP, his accomplishments more than merit a gold jacket. However, at 40 years old, recovering from a torn Achilles could signal the twilight of his career. Yet, with his immense talent and ability, Rodgers might still perform at the elite level we've come to expect. A better offensive line, star player Garrett Wilson and now Williams and Corley in the fold as his pass-catchers, a determined Breece Hall as his lead-back, an upgraded supporting cast for Rodgers.
Douglas has been with the Jets since 2019 and hired Saleh as head coach in 2021. These two have not exactly seen much winning during their tenures and if that continues, owner Woody Johnson could step in. Saleh has transformed the Jets' defense into a formidable unit, and Douglas has assembled the talent to make it happen. They are aiming for a bounce-back season, hoping to clinch a playoff spot for the first time since 2010.
With Rodgers returning and the roster looking better on paper, New York can compete for a playoff spot, but an AFC East title is also not out of the question.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 7-10
New England Patriots:
- Record: 4-13 (2023) - Overall finish: Did not qualify for playoffs
- Division placement: 4th - Head Coach: Jerod Mayo (1st season)
- Offense rank: 276.2 yds/G (30/32) - Defense rank: 301.6 yds/G allowed (7/32)
Last year’s overview:
New England was hopeful by bringing in Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator would help improve the offense and elevate quarterback Mac Jones, given the familiarity. That ended up not being the case as the Patriots offense was poor and Jones was benched three different times after abysmal performances. This resulted in the Patriots finishing with four total wins, their lowest win total since 2000 (5-11). It's strange to consider, considering the six Super Bowls Bill Belichick and Tom Brady helped bring to Foxborough, but as with all good things, even dynasties sadly come to an end—a harsh reality that New England is currently facing.
New Additions:
A big change came with the Patriots on January 11th, 2024. This is when the organization and legendary head coach Bill Belichick agreed to mutually part ways, ending a 24-year tenure. To address the head coach vacancy, the team hired not only a familiar face but a former player, ex-linebacker Jerod Mayo is the new head coach of the New England Patriots. Served as the team’s inside linebackers coach from 2019-2023 and he won a Super Bowl with the team in 2014. He and the new General Manager, Eliot Wolf, have a daunting task ahead. Their first move was trading Jones to Jacksonville for a 2024 sixth-round pick, clearly marking their commitment to a rebuild.
As a bridge option, the Pats signed quarterback Jacoby Brissett to a one-year, $8 million contract. Brissett will reunite with offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, with whom he previously worked with during their time in Cleveland. Offensive lineman Mike Onwenu was set to become a free agent, but the team ensured that wouldn't happen by reaching a three-year, $57 million deal with him. Onwenu can play both guard and tackle, is a reliable player who is effective in both pass-blocking and run-blocking, and is only 26 years old. Another crucial re-signing for the team was securing a four-year, $36 million extension with running back Rhamondre Stevenson, a versatile and physical player who contributes significantly in both rushing and receiving.
Pass rushers Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings were brought back as well, Uche on a one-year deal and Jennings for three years. Adding to the defense, replacing Mack Wilson Sr. Wolf signed linebacker Sione Takitaki to a two-year contract, an underrated addition who could compliment other linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai. Missing out on the Calvin Ridley sweepstakes, the Patriots pivoted to signing receiver K.J. Osborn to a one-year deal. Osborn, previously with Minnesota, adds depth to a receiver corps that includes re-signed Kendrick Bourne, Juju Smith-Schuster, and promising second-year player Demario Douglas, poised for a breakout season. Coming over from Washington is running back Antonio Gibson who agreed to a three-year deal with the Pats, also a versatile back that had a career-high 48 catches last season will form a solid one-two punch with Stevenson. Tight end Austin Hooper will be another pass-catcher joining the fold on a one-year deal, familiarity with Van Pelt, he will be the number 2 tight end option behind re-signed Hunter Henry. In the draft, Drake Maye the former North Carolina quarterback was taken third overall by the Pats and he is the guy they are counting on to bring a Super Bowl back to Foxborough. Second-round pick Ja’Lynn Polk, a receiver from Washington, and Javon Baker, drafted in the fourth round by the team, have the potential to emerge as draft steals.
Burning Questions for NE:
It’s a new era in New England, a team that once dominated with the great duo of Belichick and Brady that brought championships and AFC East titles. Times have changed, and owner Robert Kraft understands this; he will need to have patience until the team returns to a contending status.
Does Drake Maye start right away?
What type of identity does Jerod Mayo envision for this team?
Maye will eventually see action as a starter with this team, the question is does he start right away? He and Brissett are expected to compete for the starting role during training camp, with valid arguments supporting either as the potential starter. Mayo might prefer to allow Maye more time to develop and familiarize himself with the offensive system, which could be a reason why Brissett is likely to start. However, if Maye impresses during training camp and garners attention from the coaches, he could strongly contend for the starting role.
Mayo has big shoes to fill, replacing Belichick and what he did for this franchise will not be easy to do. Jerod's background as a former player is an advantage because he understands the organization's day-to-day operations and may prioritize maintaining those familiar tendencies. Now that it's his team, there's curiosity about how much Mayo will depart from Belichick's coaching style. Patriots fans will get their answer this upcoming season.
When a team enters a rebuilding phase, not much winning comes out of the first season and this will likely be the case for the Patriots. On the defensive side, keep an eye out for talent like edge rusher Matthew Judon and second-year cornerback Christian Gonzalez, both poised to make significant impacts this season. With the organization known for its stability and high standards, Maye is in good hands, and the possibility of him becoming the franchise quarterback is on the horizon.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 7-10
Floor: 4-13
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