Fantasy Football Do’s and Don’ts: NFL Week 1

Here we are, the day before the NFL regular season kicks off and one of the happiest days of the year for fantasy footballers! You're either panicking or are extremely confident in setting your lineup! I've got some do's and don'ts that might help you get a week 1 win.

DO start your studs. Whoever you drafted in the first couple of rounds of your draft are the guys that you're probably gonna ride all year long (barring injuries.) So you gotta start these guys every week. It's ride or die with these players. Here's a short list of some studs that you should make active no matter what. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy.

DON'T count on Adrian Peterson for the first month of the season. Look, I took AP in a couple of my drafts with my 2nd or 3rd pick. Usually, you start guys you picked in that spot no matter what. However, AP is coming off a horrific knee injury and the Vikings have been handling him with baby gloves to this point. Typically, it takes players with his type of knee injury a full season to get back to form. I'm counting on him being a freak of nature and getting back to form earlier than that, but I'm not counting on that happening in September. He will, at best, share carries with Toby Gerhardt in week 1 and we should learn a lot in this first game of what to expect. If you have a quality back-up, go ahead and sit Peterson this week. And don't expect typical Peterson numbers for a few weeks. The only reason to start him, would be if you don't have anybody else to play.

DO roll with Peyton Manning. If you were able to get Manning as your back-up QB... good for you! If you took him early in drafts expecting the Manning magic to be there... then roll with it. It may look rusty for a few weeks, then again, he may go for 300 yards and a couple TD's right off the bat. I'm expecting Manning to be a top 10 fantasy QB this season, not a top 5... and that's good enough to be your starter. Say it with me, "CUT THAT MEAT!!!"

DON'T gamble on Maurice Jones-Drew this week like you did in the draft. Kudos to you if you gambled on MJD and took him in the first couple of rounds on draft day. It's gonna pay off for you this season... but not this week. News that the pint-sized punisher returned to the Jaguars this week has to have his owners happy. But he won't be the stud you need him to be in week 1. If you have his handcuff, Rashad Jennings, I would start him and sit Jones-Drew this week.

DO gamble on Trent Richardson this week. I hate drafting rookie running backs in the early rounds of fantasy drafts. There is no real way of knowing if he'll be a stud or a dud, it's a big question mark. But the last time there was an RB this highly touted out of college, I passed on him in the third round of my draft, his name was Adrian Peterson. All he did his rookie year was run for 1,300 yards and score 13 TD's. More and more rookie RBs are finding success in the NFL. Richardson is scary in the fact that he's had two knee surgeries since being drafted, but reports out of Cleveland say he's looked good since returning to practice. Watch the fantasy reports and if Richardson is active this week, get him in your lineup.

DON'T panic this week and drop the wrong players. Hey, not all your guys are gonna perform up to snuff this week. Just accept it. Don't panic and drop the guys you drafted in the first 8 rounds if they don't have the game you expect. This goes for defenses and kickers as well. Yes, there will be some waiver wire players that we will all want after they come out of nowhere this week and score big. Try to pick those guys up, that's fine, but don't drop somebody that you'll regret releasing. Guys like Matt Forte and Percy Harvin and Reggie Wayne may not give you what you expected week 1, but for Pete sakes... don't drop em. Cuz, I'll pick em up and win your league. I once dropped the Steelers after a poor week 1 performance. They scored 30 the next week and went on to be the number one defense that year. Don't be that guy!

DO start all your Patriot players this week. That includes Brandon Lloyd, Patriots DEF, and even Steven Ridley. I think Ridley is a good flex play. 60 yards and a TD isn't unreasonable for him.

DON'T start any Miami Dolphins this week. Houston has a good defense and Reggie Bush is the only one that warrants consideration. But I'm tellin' ya... don't start him!

BOLD PREDICTIONS

Doug Martin (RB-TB) 20+ touches, 100+ total yards, 1 TD... Tampa Bay wants to keep the ball out of Cam Newton's hands, that means RUN the ball behind your new highly paid guard Carl Nicks!
Aaron Hernandez (TE-NE) outscores Rob Gronkowski (TE-NE) I know, blasphemy right? That's why these are bold predictions. Fact: Gronk is a beastly monster. Fact: Tom Brady LOVES Aaron Hernandez. I'm not ready to say Hernandez will outscore Gronk for the season, but this week it'll happen. Both these guys could be in the top 3 TEs by the end of the season.
Drew Brees, not Aaron Rodgers will be the best fantasy QB this season. This isn't too bold, and it's splitting hairs really. They'll both have great seasons. But Drew could be the first QB to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 TDs. His coach is on the beach and Breesus will be calling his own number.
LeSean McCoy (RB-PHI) will finish outside the top 8 fantasy RB's this year. "Shady" is a stud, no doubt about it. And you're gonna start him no matter what all season long. But he was the number 1 fantasy RB in most leagues last year and was drafted in the first 5 picks in most leagues this year. He's not gonna live up to those expectations. Why? The Eagles best player is out for the season. Not Mike Vick... but left tackle Jason Peters. I watched Shady run behind Peters all season long last year, he's great. But now his is achilles is bursted. That's not good for McCoy.

SLEEPERS - WEEK 1

DeAngelo Williams - Johnathan Stewart is hurt, which leaves Mike Tolbert to pick up the slack. Start Williams this week.
Jay Cutler - He's got Brandon Marshall again. He's got the Indianapolis Colts this week. Nuf said.
Mark Ingram - It's just a hunch, but Sproles has been a bit injured which may mean more touches for Pierre Thomas and Ingram. Ingram is the clear choice for goal line carries on 1st and 2nd down.
Malcom Floyd - He's one of these guys that has pretty much realized his potential in the NFL. But Antonio Gates can't catch every ball Phillip Rivers throws. It's either gonna be Floyd or Robert Meachum. I'm betting on Floyd this week.
Buffalo Bills DEF - The Bills signed sack master Mario Williams this off-season. This week they play the New York Jets. The Jets didn't score a TD all pre-season long. Yep, you read that right!

Remember the two most important rules in fantasy football... HAVE FUN!!! And SCREAMING AT THE TV DOESN'T HELP YOU WIN!!!