The National Hurricane Center has been keeping tabs on the tropics for more than a few weeks already this year. In fact, there has already been a named tropical system for the 2021 Hurricane Season. That was a very short-lived tropical storm Ana. Does that mean we are in for another wild ride of a season like we experienced last year? Not necessarily but if you look at the forecasts things could get rather busy.

What Do the Forecasters Think?

Well, the three big hurricane season forecasts we generally look at are the one from Colorado State, the one from Accu-Weather, and the one from NOAA. Almost all of these long-range tropical forecasts are in agreement. This year's tropical season will be above average. Almost all of these forecasting services are suggesting that there will be 13 to 20 named storms. Of those named storms three to five of those storms will become major hurricanes.

What Are the Chances of a Hurricane Making Landfall in Louisiana?

Well, just going by the law of averages we shouldn't have any landfalling storms this year since we had so many last year. Unfortunately, Mother Nature doesn't look at math too much when she is spinning up tropical storms. However, based on guidance and history it is estimated that there is a 50% probability that a tropical cyclone will make landfall along the Gulf coast. Now, when we focus on just the Louisiana coast, that probability drops to about 30%.

When is Prime Time for Louisiana?

Prime hurricane time for Louisiana and the Atlantic Basin in general really begins to ramp up in late August. The peak of the Hurricane Season is September 10th with another mini-peak in early October. The threat of storms usually tapers off by late October. Although previous years have shown that we can still have tropical activity well into November and even December.

So, as you can see, we don't anticipate a lot of tropical activity, at least early in the season but we do anticipate a busy tropical season. So, make sure you have your family's hurricane kit replenished and refurbished after last year, and let's get ready to face another storm season while we hope for the best.

If you're new to the area and not sure what kind of preseason planning you need to do,  you might consider these ideas.

Hurricane Game Plan, How We Get Ready at My House


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